{
  "meta": {
    "title": "Tibo Reset 行为时间线",
    "subject": "Tibo Sottiaux / @thsottiaux",
    "coverage_start": "2025-05-16",
    "coverage_source": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-codex/",
    "collection_started_at": "2026-07-26T10:17:49+08:00",
    "collection_cutoff": "2026-07-26T11:08:00+08:00",
    "latest_verified_post_at": "2026-07-25T19:17:12Z",
    "timezone": "UTC for source timestamps; Asia/Shanghai for display",
    "method_note": "基于披露查询矩阵内可核验公开帖子，不宣称穷尽全部 reset。",
    "confirmed_action_count": 41,
    "lead_count": 1
  },
  "taxonomy": {
    "action_type": {
      "hard_reset": "立即恢复当前 usage counter",
      "banked_reset_issue": "发放可储存、由用户稍后激活的 reset/card",
      "quota_bonus": "不重置 counter、也不产生 card 的 credits 或限额倍增"
    },
    "event_stage": ["announced", "effective", "retrospective"],
    "evidence_grade": {
      "A": "X DOM 可读取 Tibo 原帖，动作、对象与原因明确",
      "B": "Tibo 原帖动作明确，原因需要官方上下文推断",
      "C": "可定位线索但原帖无法完整访问；不进入正式时间线"
    }
  },
  "query_log": [
    {"id":"q01","query":"from:thsottiaux (reset OR resets OR resetting)","channel":"X Latest","period":"all indexed","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:23+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"发现 2026-07 当前批次"},
    {"id":"q02","query":"from:thsottiaux reset since:2025-10-01 until:2026-01-01","channel":"X Latest","period":"2025-Q4","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:26+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"发现 2025-11/12 及 12/17、12/19"},
    {"id":"q03","query":"from:thsottiaux reset since:2026-01-01 until:2026-04-01","channel":"X Latest","period":"2026-Q1","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:28+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"发现 2026-03；1/2 月无离散动作帖"},
    {"id":"q04","query":"from:thsottiaux reset since:2026-04-01 until:2026-06-01","channel":"X Latest","period":"2026-04/05","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:31+08:00","visible_results":9,"result":"发现 4/5 月动作；命中月份缩窗复查"},
    {"id":"q05","query":"from:thsottiaux reset since:2026-06-01 until:2026-07-09","channel":"X Latest","period":"2026-06","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:34+08:00","visible_results":7,"result":"发现 6 月 hard/banked reset"},
    {"id":"q06","query":"from:thsottiaux reset since:2026-07-09 until:2026-07-27","channel":"X Latest","period":"2026-07","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:37+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"发现发布、里程碑、补偿动作；07-10..07-18 缩窗复查"},
    {"id":"q07","query":"from:thsottiaux (reset OR \"rate limits\" OR \"usage limits\") since:2025-05-16 until:2025-10-30","channel":"X Latest","period":"coverage start","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:39+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"首个离散动作 2025-09-17；账号 2025-08 前不存在"},
    {"id":"q08","query":"from:thsottiaux (\"2X\" OR \"lifting the usage limits\" OR \"temporarily removing\" OR \"twice\")","channel":"X Latest","period":"quota bonus","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:07:42+08:00","visible_results":5,"result":"发现 2X、临时移除 5h 限制与双重置"},
    {"id":"q09","query":"site:x.com/thsottiaux (reset OR \"banked reset\" OR \"usage limit\")","channel":"Google","period":"all indexed","executed_at":"2026-07-26T11:08:00+08:00","visible_results":68,"result":"仅用于发现 post ID；核心事实回到 X 原帖核验"}
  ],
  "query_limitations": [
    "X 长时间窗通常只返回约 8–10 条，已拆分日期窗口并对所有命中月份复查。",
    "账号显示 2025-08 加入；2025-05-16 至账号加入前不可检索，不等同于确认无事件。",
    "Show more 部分帖子在搜索流不可展开；关键 postmortem 已逐条打开读取。",
    "X until 边界偶尔返回翌日结果，最终时间以原帖 time datetime UTC 为准。",
    "cutoff 后新帖不在本报告范围；普通自然周期重置说明被排除。"
  ],
  "events": [
    {
      "id":"evt-20250917-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-09-17T04:02:52Z","effective_at":"2025-09-17T04:02:52Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"gpt-5-codex limits reset","audience":"gpt-5-codex 全体","title":"GPU 扩容变慢后的首次可核验补偿","quote":"We have reset everyone's limits for gpt-5-codex ... make up for the slowdowns earlier while we were provisioning additional GPUs.","stated_reason":"GPU 扩容期间服务变慢","inferred_reason":"以免费用量补偿可用性损失","alternative_explanation":"扩容完成后的促活","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"1968163721034994139","published_at":"2025-09-17T04:02:52Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/1968163721034994139"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251105-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-11-05T20:19:29Z","effective_at":"2025-11-05T20:19:29Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"全球 outage 恢复后重置","quote":"minor outage for last 45 minutes ... global outage for last 30 minutes ... resolved and we have reset the rate limits.","stated_reason":"45 分钟小范围、30 分钟全球 outage","inferred_reason":"恢复服务后补偿中断","alternative_explanation":"恢复后拉回使用","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"1986166501435711936","published_at":"2025-11-05T20:19:29Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/1986166501435711936"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251122-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-11-22T23:13:56Z","effective_at":"2025-11-22T23:13:56Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"美国集群高延迟补偿","quote":"reset rate limits for all Codex users to compensate for the unusual high latencies in or near the US","stated_reason":"美国附近异常高延迟","inferred_reason":"区域异常扩大为全体补偿","alternative_explanation":"难以精确识别受影响路由","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"1992370994028388670","published_at":"2025-11-22T23:13:56Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/1992370994028388670"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251202-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-12-02T22:49:02Z","effective_at":"2025-12-02T22:49:02Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"多端 usage 显示不一致，先重置止损","quote":"reset the usage limits for everyone in Codex, which helps us mitigate the issue the fastest","stated_reason":"Web、CLI、VS Code usage limits 显示不一致","inferred_reason":"重置是快速缓解，不等于根因修复","alternative_explanation":"减少支持压力","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"usage_accounting","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"1995988609896513743","published_at":"2025-12-02T22:49:02Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/1995988609896513743"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251217-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-12-17T02:18:14Z","effective_at":"2025-12-17T02:18:14Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"Bad deploy 中断后的道歉性补偿","quote":"reset everyone’s usage limits ... apologies for the disruption.","stated_reason":"bad deploy 造成中断","inferred_reason":"事故恢复后的 service credit","alternative_explanation":"修复后恢复信心","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2001114683047317723","published_at":"2025-12-17T02:18:14Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2001114683047317723"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251219-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-12-19T22:01:37Z","effective_at":"2025-12-19T22:01:37Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"计量计费系统重写，放弃回填直接重置","quote":"rewrote the underlying system to track and bill usage ... reset usage limits in the process. Backfilling is time consuming and it’s more fun to give free usage.","stated_reason":"usage 计量与计费系统重写，回填耗时","inferred_reason":"免费用量成本低于数据回填成本","alternative_explanation":"迁移庆祝与促活","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"usage_accounting","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2002137269134819610","published_at":"2025-12-19T22:01:37Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2002137269134819610"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251225-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","effective_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"圣诞礼物：即时重置","quote":"reset rate limits and are lifting the usage limits to 2X the usual limits until the 1st of Jan","stated_reason":"圣诞节感谢用户","inferred_reason":"节日促活","alternative_explanation":"年末容量压力测试","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"celebration_activation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2004100061933064395","published_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2004100061933064395"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20251225-bonus","status":"confirmed","action_type":"quota_bonus","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","effective_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"2× limits through Jan 1","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"圣诞礼物：临时 2× limits","quote":"lifting the usage limits to 2X the usual limits until the 1st of Jan","stated_reason":"圣诞节感谢用户","inferred_reason":"延长节日期间试用窗口","alternative_explanation":"负载与需求实验","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"celebration_activation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2004100061933064395","published_at":"2025-12-25T08:01:03Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2004100061933064395"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260303-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-03-03T01:50:07Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"请求被误判 high cyber risk","quote":"issue that caused requests to be blocked and rejected as high cyber risk ... fixed in ~8 mins ... Team will reset rate limits","stated_reason":"发布导致请求被错误拒绝，约 8 分钟修复","inferred_reason":"对误拒请求浪费的配额补偿","alternative_explanation":"事故沟通安抚","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2028649088594436225","published_at":"2026-03-03T01:50:07Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2028649088594436225"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260308-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-03-08T02:42:13Z","effective_at":"2026-03-08T02:42:13Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Plus、Pro","title":"未证实广泛异常，仍先重置","quote":"don’t have evidence of a widespread issue ... enough reports and we have reset rate limits for plus & pro subscriptions","stated_reason":"usage drain 举报；已知少于 1% 的会话显示不一致","inferred_reason":"信任风险足以触发预防性补偿","alternative_explanation":"减少投诉并争取调查时间","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"trust_repair","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2030474136024400173","published_at":"2026-03-08T02:42:13Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2030474136024400173"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260311-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-03-11T05:38:13Z","effective_at":"2026-03-11T05:38:13Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"GPU fleet 稳定后按下 Reset","quote":"Codex is back and stable ... Reset button pressed","stated_reason":"GPU fleet 过载后恢复稳定","inferred_reason":"恢复后补偿而非故障期加压","alternative_explanation":"恢复使用率","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2031605592352313567","published_at":"2026-03-11T05:38:13Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2031605592352313567"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260327-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-03-27T01:52:28Z","effective_at":"2026-03-27T01:52:28Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 全计划","title":"Plugins 发布试用补贴","quote":"reset Codex usage limits across all plans to let everyone experiment with the magnificent plugins we just launched, and because it had been a while!","stated_reason":"plugins 发布、已有一阵未重置","inferred_reason":"用免费算力换试用和反馈","alternative_explanation":"普通促活","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"launch_adoption","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2037346989244096581","published_at":"2026-03-27T01:52:28Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2037346989244096581"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260407-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-04-07T23:13:48Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"3M 用户：建立每 +1M 重置承诺","quote":"Three million people ... reset them every additional 1M users until we reach 10M","stated_reason":"3M weekly users","inferred_reason":"将增长里程碑游戏化","alternative_explanation":"容量展示与品牌传播","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2041655710346572085","published_at":"2026-04-07T23:13:48Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2041655710346572085"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260409-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-04-09T02:31:42Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"second 3M reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"自然周边界让上次重置失去价值，补一次","quote":"yesterday’s Codex reset came ... unfortunate time ... To really celebrate the 3M I’ll reset again tomorrow.","stated_reason":"上次 reset 靠近自然周重置，时机不佳","inferred_reason":"纠正强制 reset 对未用额度用户的负效用","alternative_explanation":"回应社区反馈","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"trust_repair","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2042067902392942790","published_at":"2026-04-09T02:31:42Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2042067902392942790"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260417-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-04-17T00:58:21Z","effective_at":"2026-04-17T00:58:21Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 全计划","title":"Codex 一周年重置","quote":"celebrate its 1-year anniversary ... Codex to reset its own rate limits across all plans.","stated_reason":"Codex 一周年与新功能","inferred_reason":"周年促活","alternative_explanation":"集中展示产品进展","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"celebration_activation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2044943514832871564","published_at":"2026-04-17T00:58:21Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2044943514832871564"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260420-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-04-20T23:15:21Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limit reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"10 分钟 partial outage 后补偿","quote":"incident is mitigated ... Lasted about 10 mins ... rate limit reset incoming.","stated_reason":"Codex 部分不可用约 10 分钟，已缓解","inferred_reason":"事故恢复后的补偿","alternative_explanation":"恢复流量","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2046367145588916687","published_at":"2026-04-20T23:15:21Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2046367145588916687"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260421-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-04-21T14:52:11Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"4M 活跃用户里程碑","quote":"Codex has hit 4M active users ... To celebrate we will reset ... in a few hours.","stated_reason":"4M active users","inferred_reason":"执行每 +1M 至 10M 的公开承诺","alternative_explanation":"增长传播","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2046602907077038501","published_at":"2026-04-21T14:52:11Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2046602907077038501"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260428-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-04-28T05:28:43Z","effective_at":"2026-04-28T05:28:43Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"rate limits reset","audience":"Codex 所有付费计划","title":"Good week 与 GPT-5.5 试用","quote":"reset Codex rate limits for ALL paid plans to celebrate a good week and allow everyone to build more with GPT-5.5.","stated_reason":"good week，鼓励 GPT-5.5 使用","inferred_reason":"模型采用补贴","alternative_explanation":"一般团队庆祝","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"launch_adoption","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2048997818673537399","published_at":"2026-04-28T05:28:43Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2048997818673537399"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260516-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-05-16T00:31:50Z","effective_at":"2026-05-16T17:51:03Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 所有付费计划","title":"GPT-5.5 约 48 小时能力退化补偿","quote":"found and fixed two issues ... degradation ... GPT-5.5 ... usage limits have now been reset across all paid plans.","stated_reason":"两个问题导致 GPT-5.5 在 Codex 约 48 小时能力退化","inferred_reason":"修复并监控稳定后补偿","alternative_explanation":"重新拉动模型试用","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2055446089957036402","published_at":"2026-05-16T00:31:50Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2055446089957036402"},{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2055707616605835333","published_at":"2026-05-16T17:51:03Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2055707616605835333"}]
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260523-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-05-23T20:14:35Z","effective_at":"2026-05-23T20:14:35Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 全账号","title":"长会话 cache hit 回归导致配额消耗过快","quote":"limits drained faster ... impact on cache hit rates when compacting across long running sessions ... fixed ... reset usage limits for all accounts.","stated_reason":"compaction 优化影响长会话 cache hit","inferred_reason":"对异常消耗的直接归还","alternative_explanation":"修复后恢复信心","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"usage_accounting","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2058280452851638313","published_at":"2026-05-23T20:14:35Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2058280452851638313"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260531-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-05-31T15:25:06Z","effective_at":"2026-05-31T15:25:06Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"100% weekly and hourly limits restored","audience":"付费 ChatGPT 订阅中的 Codex 用户","title":"5M 用户里程碑","quote":"usage limits have been reset for all paid ChatGPT subscriptions ... 100% weekly and 100% hourly","stated_reason":"5M users 庆祝","inferred_reason":"执行增长里程碑承诺","alternative_explanation":"付费用户促活","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2061106703446450392","published_at":"2026-05-31T15:25:06Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2061106703446450392"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260604-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-04T00:25:58Z","effective_at":"2026-06-04T00:25:58Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage limits reset","audience":"Codex 所有付费计划","title":"24 小时内三起可靠性事件","quote":"three separate small incidents that affected Codex reliability ... reset usage limits ... across all paid plans.","stated_reason":"三起独立小型可靠性事故","inferred_reason":"聚合补偿累计损失","alternative_explanation":"集中结束事故沟通","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2062329981548802523","published_at":"2026-06-04T00:25:58Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2062329981548802523"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260612-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-06-12T16:17:20Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"future self-activated banked reset","audience":"Go、Plus、Pro、Business","title":"Banked reset：修复强制重置的用户体验","quote":"annoying to receive a reset ... without warning. Next time ... you will get to choose when it actually applies.","stated_reason":"用户反感无预警自动 reset","inferred_reason":"把补偿时机选择权交还用户","alternative_explanation":"平滑基础设施负载","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"user_control","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2065468501750649006","published_at":"2026-06-12T16:17:20Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2065468501750649006"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260616-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-16T18:49:52Z","effective_at":"2026-06-18T00:10:10Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"full reset","audience":"Codex 全计划","title":"Model at capacity 修复后的 full reset","quote":"This was fixed ... Give us 24 hours to reset ... across all plans.","stated_reason":"部分用户高频 model at capacity，已修复","inferred_reason":"恢复后补偿受阻请求","alternative_explanation":"修复验证后的流量恢复","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2066956441173323943","published_at":"2026-06-16T18:49:52Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2066956441173323943"},{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2067399435009622521","published_at":"2026-06-18T00:10:10Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2067399435009622521"}]
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260618-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-18T00:10:10Z","effective_at":"2026-06-18T00:10:10Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"one reset added to bank","audience":"Codex 用户","title":"Sneaky double reset：再发一张 banked reset","quote":"Not only ... a full reset ... also ... one into the reset bank","stated_reason":"上一事故补偿并演示新 banked 机制","inferred_reason":"兼顾即时补偿与用户择时","alternative_explanation":"新功能推广","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"user_control","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2067399435009622521","published_at":"2026-06-18T00:10:10Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2067399435009622521"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260626-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-26T23:39:48Z","effective_at":"2026-06-26T23:39:48Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"未证实大范围影响，仍广发补偿","quote":"giving all Codex users a usage reset ... investigation hasn't shown users being impacted at large.","stated_reason":"怀疑 abuse/fraud prevention 过度标记导致 faster drain","inferred_reason":"归因不确定时，漏赔成本高于错发成本","alternative_explanation":"舆情修复","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"trust_repair","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2070653282440405046","published_at":"2026-06-26T23:39:48Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2070653282440405046"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260628-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-28T23:54:07Z","effective_at":"2026-06-28T23:54:07Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"hard reset without consuming bank","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"Usage drain 调查中先 hard reset","quote":"still investigating ... reset everyone's ... hard reset given some users had stacked up to three banked resets","stated_reason":"usage drain 调查仍在进行","inferred_reason":"保留用户已储存的 banked reset","alternative_explanation":"快速安抚与争取排障时间","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"trust_repair","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2071381664853319742","published_at":"2026-06-28T23:54:07Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2071381664853319742"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260629-targeted-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-06-29T00:01:08Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"replacement manual reset","audience":"此前已使用 reset 但未耗尽的用户","title":"承诺补回被时机伤害的 manual reset","quote":"used your previous reset ... do not worry, you will get more manual resets after we conclude the investigation.","stated_reason":"hard reset 对刚使用旧 reset 的用户价值较低","inferred_reason":"定向修复强制时机外部性","alternative_explanation":"减少公平性质疑","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"user_control","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2071383430634344902","published_at":"2026-06-29T00:01:08Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2071383430634344902"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260629-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","effective_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"full reset","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"多因素 usage drain 修复后再次 full reset","quote":"fully reset again ... Auto-review ... more subagent work ... background suggestions ... twice or retry too frequently","stated_reason":"auto-review、sub-agent、后台重试与 usage reporting 多个小问题叠加","inferred_reason":"同时归还真实异常消耗与显示误差造成的信任损失","alternative_explanation":"重大 postmortem 的产品沟通","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"usage_accounting","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2071740419030053227","published_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2071740419030053227"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260629-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","effective_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"one additional reset in bank","audience":"Codex 全体","title":"Postmortem 后额外发放 banked reset","quote":"credit one additional reset into your bank","stated_reason":"usage drain 与报告错误补偿","inferred_reason":"为用户保留可择时的第二层补偿","alternative_explanation":"推广 banked reset 使用","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"user_control","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2071740419030053227","published_at":"2026-06-29T23:39:41Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2071740419030053227"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260709-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-09T21:24:11Z","effective_at":"2026-07-09T21:24:11Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"full reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex","title":"新研究成员加入庆祝","quote":"Enjoy a full reset ... ChatGPT Work and Codex ... just joined ... thank him for pressing the button","stated_reason":"新研究成员加入","inferred_reason":"人格化品牌促活","alternative_explanation":"为次日发布预热","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"celebration_activation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2075330198887940337","published_at":"2026-07-09T21:24:11Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2075330198887940337"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260710-hard-1","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-10T05:30:53Z","effective_at":"2026-07-10T17:59:43Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"first of two full resets","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex","title":"GPT-5.6 Sol 发布：第一次 reset","quote":"celebrate the launch of GPT-5.6 Sol ... reset ... twice ... over next 24 hours","stated_reason":"GPT-5.6 Sol 发布，鼓励 ambitious tasks","inferred_reason":"用算力补贴换试用、反馈与压力测试","alternative_explanation":"发布庆祝","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"launch_adoption","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2075452680760443190","published_at":"2026-07-10T05:30:53Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2075452680760443190"},{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2075641131002700120","published_at":"2026-07-10T17:59:43Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2075641131002700120"}]
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260711-hard-2","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-10T17:59:43Z","effective_at":"2026-07-11T05:54:25Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"second of two full resets","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex","title":"GPT-5.6 Sol 发布：第二次 reset","quote":"another usage limit reset ... Should land over next 30 minutes ... traffic increase so quickly.","stated_reason":"Sol 发布双重置；流量快速增长","inferred_reason":"启动期 banked reset 尚不适用，hard reset 负载更可预测","alternative_explanation":"延长模型试用窗口","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"launch_adoption","evidence_grade":"A","sources":[{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2075820987833274448","published_at":"2026-07-11T05:54:25Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2075820987833274448"},{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2075956058942820790","published_at":"2026-07-11T14:51:08Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2075956058942820790"}]
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260712-bonus","status":"confirmed","action_type":"quota_bonus","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-12T17:59:57Z","effective_at":"2026-07-12T17:59:57Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"temporary removal of 5-hour restriction","audience":"Plus、Business、Pro","title":"临时移除 5 小时限制","quote":"Temporarily removing the 5 hour usage limit restriction for all Plus, Business and Pro plans","stated_reason":"Sol/Work 发布后高压与效率改进","inferred_reason":"降低新产品体验摩擦","alternative_explanation":"容量与需求实验","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"launch_adoption","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2076365965915467978","published_at":"2026-07-12T17:59:57Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2076365965915467978"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260712-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-12T21:28:59Z","effective_at":"2026-07-12T21:28:59Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"one replacement banked reset","audience":"两小时窗口内点击过按钮的约 50 万用户","title":"Banked reset 首发故障，扩大补发至 50 万人","quote":"Added a banked reset to 500k users ... less than 10% ... it didn’t actually reset","stated_reason":"Web/移动端按钮对少于 10% 使用者未生效，无法精确识别","inferred_reason":"归因不确定时扩大补偿范围","alternative_explanation":"新机制信任修复","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"trust_repair","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2076418567143408112","published_at":"2026-07-12T21:28:59Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2076418567143408112"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260713-banked","status":"confirmed","action_type":"banked_reset_issue","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-13T18:29:31Z","effective_at":"2026-07-13T18:29:31Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"one banked reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex 全体","title":"7M 用户：全员发放 banked reset","quote":"added a banked reset to everyone's account to celebrate ... 7M active users","stated_reason":"7M active users","inferred_reason":"执行里程碑承诺，同时采用用户可择时机制","alternative_explanation":"推广 banked reset","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2076735790567338203","published_at":"2026-07-13T18:29:31Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2076735790567338203"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260714-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-14T19:34:54Z","effective_at":"2026-07-14T19:34:54Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex 全体","title":"8M 用户里程碑","quote":"reached 8M active users ... once again resetting ... for all","stated_reason":"8M active users","inferred_reason":"执行每 +1M 至 10M 的承诺","alternative_explanation":"应对快速增长中的体验摩擦","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2077114635308986427","published_at":"2026-07-14T19:34:54Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2077114635308986427"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260716-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-16T04:14:09Z","effective_at":"2026-07-16T04:14:09Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"100% weekly usage restored","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex","title":"9M 用户里程碑","quote":"Another reset ... hit 9M active users ... 100% weekly usage limit back","stated_reason":"9M active users","inferred_reason":"执行每 +1M 至 10M 的承诺","alternative_explanation":"快速增长期补偿 hiccups","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2077607697487188198","published_at":"2026-07-16T04:14:09Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2077607697487188198"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260718-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-18T03:28:22Z","effective_at":"2026-07-18T03:28:22Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex 所有付费用户","title":"无明确事故的周末赠送","quote":"reset usage limits for all paid users ... grateful ... team ... keeping infra up as we scale ... Enjoy the weekend!","stated_reason":"感谢团队与用户、周末、扩容进展","inferred_reason":"纯促活与品牌赠送","alternative_explanation":"快速扩张期的宽泛补偿","causal_confidence":"medium","reason_category":"celebration_activation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2078320950488297917","published_at":"2026-07-18T03:28:22Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2078320950488297917"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260721-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"announced","announcement_at":"2026-07-21T16:47:15Z","effective_at":null,"date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex 付费用户","title":"10M 用户：公开承诺的终点","quote":"10M! New day, new usage reset for paid users","stated_reason":"10M active users","inferred_reason":"完成 3M 时许下的每 +1M 至 10M 承诺","alternative_explanation":"增长传播","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"growth_milestone","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2079609157934886975","published_at":"2026-07-21T16:47:15Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2079609157934886975"}
    },
    {
      "id":"evt-20260725-hard","status":"confirmed","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","announcement_at":"2026-07-25T19:17:12Z","effective_at":"2026-07-25T19:17:12Z","date_precision":"second","benefit":"usage reset","audience":"ChatGPT Work + Codex 全体","title":"几乎全球 outage 恢复后全员重置","quote":"reset usage limits for all ... Last night around 2am to 4am ... almost global outage ... recovered","stated_reason":"前夜约 2–4am 几乎全球 outage，已恢复","inferred_reason":"恢复后的普遍补偿","alternative_explanation":"周末恢复促活","causal_confidence":"high","reason_category":"reliability_compensation","evidence_grade":"A","source":{"author":"Tibo Sottiaux","handle":"@thsottiaux","post_id":"2081096447718723984","published_at":"2026-07-25T19:17:12Z","accessed_on":"2026-07-26","type":"X original post","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2081096447718723984"}
    }
  ],
  "leads": [
    {
      "id":"lead-20251030","status":"unverified","action_type":"hard_reset","event_stage":"effective","date":"2025-10-30T19:05:16Z","title":"$100 plan 与 credit packs 发布庆祝","quote":"PS In celebration, we reset Codex rate limits for everyone","evidence_grade":"C","reason":"Google 可定位原文片段与 post ID，但本轮 X DOM 未完整读取；不计入正式时间线。","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/1983973493864894739"
    }
  ],
  "prediction_rubric": {
    "signals": [
      {"id":"explicit_commitment","points":4,"definition":"Tibo/OpenAI 明确承诺 reset 或给出执行窗口"},
      {"id":"resolved_incident","points":3,"definition":"已确认且已恢复的 outage 或 usage drain"},
      {"id":"launch_regression","points":2,"definition":"重大发布同时出现成本、回归或异常反馈"},
      {"id":"active_milestone_policy","points":2,"definition":"仍有效的明确里程碑承诺被触发"},
      {"id":"unconfirmed_anomaly","points":1,"definition":"异常仍在调查，影响范围未确认"},
      {"id":"calendar_occasion","points":1,"definition":"周末、节日或周年"}
    ],
    "levels": {"high":"4+","medium":"2–3","low":"0–1","not_rated":"信号无法取得或互相矛盾"},
    "independence_rule":"相同因果类别的转帖、复述或重复投诉不重复计分。"
  }
}